October, 2013 Sales Analysis

Here are the latest sales numbers for all homes sold within the City of La Quinta as well as all Golf Course homes in La Quinta from January, 2008 through October, 2013.

The current inventory of “Active Listings” remains tight. The Coachella Valley is currently transitioning from a buyers market to a sellers market. Some segments of the market have already moved to the sellers favor. The point at which the market changes from buyer to seller is determined by the months supply of homes for sale.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) the market is defined by the number of months supply of homes currently for sale. The dividing line between a Buyers / Sellers market is 6 months supply. Months Supply is determined by dividing the total number of sales in the last 6 month period by 6 to get the average number of sales per month and dividing that number into the current number of active listings.

For example: If the total homes sold in the past 6 months = 18 then 18/6 = 3 sales in the average month. If the current active “for sale” inventory was 21 then 21/3(Avg Mo Sales) = 7 Months Supply which would qualify as a weak buyers market. 6 months supply is considered a “Normal” market and anything less than 6 months supply is defined as a sellers market.

Here is a breakdown of current months supply in the City of La Quinta:

MoSup11-13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another measure of inventory is the number of active listings as a percent of total number of homes in a gated community. According to the NAR, a gated community normally has 10% of the homes available for resale. Here are the stats for 3 La Quinta communities:

Mountain View CC: 426 homes, 22 for resale – 5%
Rancho La Quinta CC: 960 homes, 31 for resale – 3%
Citrus Club: 576 homes, 10 for resale – 1.7%

Here are some historical charts showing the present market and how it compares over the last five years and beyond.

allunitssold10-13

golfunitssold10-13

All-PSQFT10-13

Golf-PSqFt10-13

Bubble10-13
The pink line represents a 4.5% rate of appreciation, which is the historical rate of appreciation (going back to 1968) according to the National Association of Realtors.
Here are some yearly sales figures (units) for the City of La Quinta from 2002:

Year

All

LQ Golf Course

2002

1,356

259

2003

1,572

640

2004

1,938

785

2005

1,563

638

2006

1,118

483

2007

  942

444

2008

1,076

405

2009

1,202

409

2010

1,360

518

2011

1,446

510

2012

1,532

587

2013 YTD

1,323

561

* Remember that the sales numbers represent “Closed” escrows. Since the average escrow is between 45 and 60 days, the decision to purchase the homes that closed in June was probably made in March to early April.

Source: DesertAreaMLS

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