July, 2014 Sales Analysis

Here are the latest sales numbers for all homes sold within the City of La Quinta as well as all Golf Course homes in La Quinta from January, 2008 through July, 2014.

The inventory of “Active Listings” in the Coachella Valley decreased again from June to May which is usual as we enter the summer season. The number of Sold units decreased over the same period last year (July, 2013) which is the trend for the summer months. The main reason is that the inventory has decreased in June and July. The pace at which real estate prices increased in the October to January period seemed to slow to a more normal rate in February through July. The price rise slowed as did the home sales. The activity in the million dollar+ market seems to have picked up but prices have not increased as much as they have for the under a million dollar homes. The national real estate market been a little fluky over a leveling off in the late spring where the national sales actually dropped in August. Our market in the Desert usually slows during our hot summer months and the blogs and statisticians are still predicting a strong national 2015 market so we are looking forward to a great 2015 season.

allunitssold7-14

golfunitssold7-14

All-PSQFT7-14

Golf-PSqFt7-14

 

 

Below is the chart depicting the “bubble” in sales versus the historical 4.5% annual appreciation. As predicted by the National Association of Realtors back in 2005. It will be interesting to see how close the actual sales prices stay to the “Normal Appreciation” line in the coming months. One of the reasons for the recent price increases is that we have seen more American buyers in the market than in the past few years which is a sign that our economic outlook seems to be improving.

Bubble7-14

Here are some yearly sales figures (units) for the City of La Quinta from 2002:
Year – All LQ – Golf Course
2002 – 1,356 – 259
2003 – 1,572 – 640
2004 – 1,938 – 785
2005 – 1,563 – 638
2006 – 1,118 – 483
2007  –  942 – 444
2008 – 1,076 – 405
2009 – 1,202 – 409
2010 – 1,360 – 518
2011 – 1,446 – 510
2012 – 1,532 – 587
2013 – 1,537 – 567
2014  –  924 – 450
YTD
* Remember that the sales numbers represent “Closed” escrows. Since the average escrow is between 45 and 60 days, the decision to purchase the homes that closed in June was probably made in March to early April.
For more information about the Coachella Valley Real Estate market, Please call us at (760) 203-2621!

Source: DesertAreaMLS

January, 2014 Sales Analysis

Here are the latest sales numbers for all homes sold within the City of La Quinta as well as all Golf Course homes in La Quinta from January, 2008 through January, 2014.

In January, the current inventory of “Active Listings” is starting to increase. The Coachella Valley has transitioned from a buyers market to a sellers market. Most of the popular segments of the market have already moved to the sellers favor and prices in most segments is beginning to increase. We are beginning to see activity in the million dollar+ market which had been particularly slow in the last few years.

The point at which the market changes from buyer to seller is determined by the months supply of homes for sale. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) the market is defined by the number of months supply of homes currently for sale. The dividing line between a Buyers / Sellers market is 6 months supply. Months Supply is determined by dividing the total number of sales in the last 6 month period by 6 to get the average number of sales per month and dividing that number into the current number of active listings.

For example: If the total homes sold in the past 6 months = 18 then 18/6 = 3 sales in the average month. If the current active “for sale” inventory was 21 then 21/3(Avg Mo Sales) = 7 Months Supply which would qualify as a weak buyers market. 6 months supply is considered a “Normal” market and anything less than 6 months supply is defined as a sellers market.

Here is a breakdown of current months supply in the City of La Quinta:

2Months

 

allunitssold1-14All-PSQFT1-14golfunitssold1-14Golf-PSqFt1-14Bubble1-14

Notice that the Average price per square foot graph (above), which shows the famous “Bubble” (2002 – 2009) now shows that the current price is back on track with the historical average rate of real estate appreciation of 4.5%.

October, 2013 Sales Analysis

Here are the latest sales numbers for all homes sold within the City of La Quinta as well as all Golf Course homes in La Quinta from January, 2008 through October, 2013.

The current inventory of “Active Listings” remains tight. The Coachella Valley is currently transitioning from a buyers market to a sellers market. Some segments of the market have already moved to the sellers favor. The point at which the market changes from buyer to seller is determined by the months supply of homes for sale.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) the market is defined by the number of months supply of homes currently for sale. The dividing line between a Buyers / Sellers market is 6 months supply. Months Supply is determined by dividing the total number of sales in the last 6 month period by 6 to get the average number of sales per month and dividing that number into the current number of active listings.

For example: If the total homes sold in the past 6 months = 18 then 18/6 = 3 sales in the average month. If the current active “for sale” inventory was 21 then 21/3(Avg Mo Sales) = 7 Months Supply which would qualify as a weak buyers market. 6 months supply is considered a “Normal” market and anything less than 6 months supply is defined as a sellers market.

Here is a breakdown of current months supply in the City of La Quinta:

MoSup11-13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another measure of inventory is the number of active listings as a percent of total number of homes in a gated community. According to the NAR, a gated community normally has 10% of the homes available for resale. Here are the stats for 3 La Quinta communities:

Mountain View CC: 426 homes, 22 for resale – 5%
Rancho La Quinta CC: 960 homes, 31 for resale – 3%
Citrus Club: 576 homes, 10 for resale – 1.7%

Here are some historical charts showing the present market and how it compares over the last five years and beyond.

allunitssold10-13

golfunitssold10-13

All-PSQFT10-13

Golf-PSqFt10-13

Bubble10-13
The pink line represents a 4.5% rate of appreciation, which is the historical rate of appreciation (going back to 1968) according to the National Association of Realtors.
Here are some yearly sales figures (units) for the City of La Quinta from 2002:

Year

All

LQ Golf Course

2002

1,356

259

2003

1,572

640

2004

1,938

785

2005

1,563

638

2006

1,118

483

2007

  942

444

2008

1,076

405

2009

1,202

409

2010

1,360

518

2011

1,446

510

2012

1,532

587

2013 YTD

1,323

561

* Remember that the sales numbers represent “Closed” escrows. Since the average escrow is between 45 and 60 days, the decision to purchase the homes that closed in June was probably made in March to early April.

Source: DesertAreaMLS

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December 2010 Price Report

Here are the latest sales numbers for all homes sold within the City of La Quinta as well as all Golf Course homes in La Quinta through December, 2010.


City of La Quinta home sales by month since January 2008*

The blue lines represent 2008 data, the orange lines represent 2009 data and the magenta lines represent 2010 data.

Although the December numbers are down slightly, we continue to see a marked improvement in consumer confidence and an increase in interest in the “over $1 million” market in December after very little interest in that segment over the past year. Open escrows in December declined 5.1% which is not too surprising with the Holidays and our books indicate a strong January in the making.  There has been, in my humble opinion, a dramatic change in consumer confidence for the better.  Now buyers seem to be willing to make a move and in fact are making moves.  Closings in December and January will be two of the best months that Gallaudet Properties has ever had! Prices seem to have stabilized and, now that the “Capital Gains” tax issue (“Bush tax cuts”) is behind us for the next 2 years the activity in the $1,000,000 and above market has improved and we are putting some of the higher priced homes under contract. The general attitude of the people we talk to at open houses is that the market has hit the bottom and that is backed up by current prices versus historical appreciation.  Also, the slight increase in mortgage interest rates may have added some urgency to our industry.


Golf Course home sales in La Quinta

The sales-volume numbers in the higher-end market (which contains many of the golf properties in the chart above) have declined in December which is typical of the Holiday months of November and December. The average price per square foot declined 17.9% in December over November’s 38.6% increase.  Other than last year, December has been a little weak do to the holidays that devert attention away from our industry.

Overall, we are still seeing positive signs in the market place.  There has been a steady increase in activity since Labor Day and more noticibly since the beginning of November. The mortgage industry is the best it’s ever been for conventional loans but the “jumbo” loans, although becomming more available, continue to be a stumbling block in the higher end market.

La Quinta Inventory:
On December 31, there were 6,857 active listings, 2,136 units in escrow totalling 8,993 units available for sale which makes 23.75% of the total in Escrow.

If buying property is something on your list (especially golf property), why not take advantage of the incredible prices and seller incentives now, when sellers will work with you, instead of in the future, when the demand starts to catch up with the supply? Especially if you’re buying and planning to hold for 5+ years.

Here are some yearly sales figures (units) for the City of La Quinta from 2002:

Year All LQ Golf Course
2002 1,354 259
2003 1,565 652
2004 1,931 813
2005 1,553 657
2006 1,098 491
2007 935 447
2008 1,063 416
2009 1,155 418
2010 1,355 530 

July 2010 Price Report

Here are the latest sales numbers for all homes sold within the City of La Quinta as well as all Golf Course homes in La Quinta through July 2010.

The blue lines represent 2008 data, the orange lines represent 2009 data and the magenta lines represent 2010 data.

The chart above shows monthly sales of homes within the city of La Quinta*.

The sales for La Quinta in July were lower that June but still higher than sales for the previous 2 July’s. July showed a slight rebound in open escrows over June’s 17% drop from May. It is typical for sales to slow during the summer months but each month in 2010 has seen sales that have surpassed the same months of the previous two years. Consumer confidence seems to have steadied. Prices have not started to rise, but they seem to be stabilizing in the under $1,000,000 market. The above $1,000,000 market has not seen the improvement of the under $1m market but this is likely due to the unavailability of jumbo loans. The general attitude of the people we talk to at open houses is that the market has hit the bottom and that is backed up by current prices versus historical appreciation.

The sales-volume numbers in the higher-end market (which contains many of the golf properties in the chart above) have fallen off as expected with the arrival of the summer heat. The average price per square foot, however, has risen slightly from June’s figures. 

Overall, we are still seeing positive signs in the market place. Although prices have not yet stabilized in the higher end (over $1 million), prices seemed to have stabilized in the lower market segments. The mortgage industry continues to be a stumbling block in the higher end market as it seems that unless you can prove that you don’t need a Jumbo Loan (over $500,000), you can’t get one! The bottom line is that at the beginning of the downturn in 2006, there were over 10,000 homes available for sale in the Coachella Valley – a real glut, currently, that number is down to under 5,100. As the supply dwindles, the market begins to stabilize and people feel more comfortable to get back into the marketplace.

If buying property is something on your list (especially golf property), why not take advantage of the incredible prices and seller incentives now, when sellers will work with you, instead of in the future, when the demand starts to catch up with the supply? Especially if you’re buying and planning to hold for 5+ years.

Here are some yearly sales figures (units) for the City of La Quinta from 2002:

Year All LQ Golf Course
2002 1,354     259
2003 1,565   652
2004 1,931    813
2005 1,553  657
2006 1,098  491
2007 935   447
2008 1,063   416
2009 1,155   418
2010 YTD 825   363 (July)

* When looking at “sold” data, you have to remember that the numbers are generated on the date that the sale is recorded with the county but that the decision to buy was made about 45 – 60 days earlier.

A Concept to Consider…

Let’s say that it is mid-season in 2006 and you live in a home that is worth $900,000. Now let’s say that your children, grand children and friends have discovered that visiting you is a whole lot of fun so you want to buy a bigger home – say $1,800,000. So here’s what you are looking at (roughly), invest an additional $900,000 in the bigger home and at least double your property tax base which would be more than $11,250 additionally per year. But for some reason you didn’t pull the trigger and now it’s 2010, and you are reconsidering that proposition BUT your house isn’t worth $900,000 anymore and you could never afford that upgrade…

Oh Really?

Now, The “Bubble” has burst and your home has depreciated by 35% – BUT so has the home you wanted to buy. So you sell your home for $585,000 ($900,000 – 35%) and the home you wanted to buy for $1,800,000 has also depreciated 35% and is now worth $1,170,000. So now in 2010, you invest an additional $585,000 instead of $900,000, and buy the new home for $1,170,000. Your children, grand children and friend come to
visit and are really thankful that you bought such a nice comfortable home…

The bottom line is that if you upgrade today using the example above, you will save $315,000 in upgrade cost and you will save $7,875.00 per year in property taxes because you bought your new home for $630,000 less than you would have in 2006.