January & February, 2013 Sales Analysis

Here are the latest sales numbers for all homes sold within the City of La Quinta as well as all Golf Course homes in La Quinta from January, 2008 through February, 2013.

allunitssold2-13

 

golfunitssold2-13

 

The blue lines represent 2008 data, the orange lines represent 2009 data magenta lines represent 2010, green lines represent 2011 data, purple lines represent 2012 data and the pink lines represent 2013 data.
Looking at the numbers, 2012 was a good year for real estate in La Quinta and 2013 looks like it will be an even better year. The first quarter of 2013 will be the strongest quarter since 2008.
I’m sure you are aware that the news media is hyping the “rise of the median home prices”. That is a fact. The median price is rising but there is more to the story. The “Median” price is the middle price in the list of prices. That list of prices contains both “normal” sales and “distressed” sales (short sales and foreclosures) which sell at “distressed” (lower) prices. If the number of “distressed” sales dimishes, the median price will move higher up the list but that does not necessarily mean that the prices at the high end of the list have changed at all. The good news is that prices in general have begun to follow the “normal” 4.5% real estate rate of appreciation.

Bubble2-2012

 

The difference in the “Normal” line and the “Actual” line after 2010 is in part due to the distressed sales keeping the overall numbers lower. The drop in the prices in 2011 can be attributed to the number of distressed property sales rising to over 50% of all sales. Prior to 2009, “Distressed” sales accounted for less then 5% of all sales. As the “Distressed” sales become a significant part of the number of sales, they also hold the value of “Normal” sales back because they are used as comparable’s during negotiations and appraisals.

Here are some yearly sales figures (units) for the City of La Quinta from 2002:

Year

All

LQ Golf Course

2002

1,356

259

2003

1,572

640

2004

1,938

785

2005

1,563

638

2006

1,118

483

2007

  942

444

2008

1,076

405

2009

1,202

409

2010

1,360

518

2011

1,446

510

2012

1,532

587

2013 YTD

239

98

* Remember that the sales numbers represent “Closed” escrows. Since the average escrow is between 45 and 60 days, the decision to purchase the homes that closed in June was probably made in March to early April.

Source: DesertAreaMLS

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