January & February, 2013 Sales Analysis

Here are the latest sales numbers for all homes sold within the City of La Quinta as well as all Golf Course homes in La Quinta from January, 2008 through February, 2013.

allunitssold2-13

 

golfunitssold2-13

 

The blue lines represent 2008 data, the orange lines represent 2009 data magenta lines represent 2010, green lines represent 2011 data, purple lines represent 2012 data and the pink lines represent 2013 data.
Looking at the numbers, 2012 was a good year for real estate in La Quinta and 2013 looks like it will be an even better year. The first quarter of 2013 will be the strongest quarter since 2008.
I’m sure you are aware that the news media is hyping the “rise of the median home prices”. That is a fact. The median price is rising but there is more to the story. The “Median” price is the middle price in the list of prices. That list of prices contains both “normal” sales and “distressed” sales (short sales and foreclosures) which sell at “distressed” (lower) prices. If the number of “distressed” sales dimishes, the median price will move higher up the list but that does not necessarily mean that the prices at the high end of the list have changed at all. The good news is that prices in general have begun to follow the “normal” 4.5% real estate rate of appreciation.

Bubble2-2012

 

The difference in the “Normal” line and the “Actual” line after 2010 is in part due to the distressed sales keeping the overall numbers lower. The drop in the prices in 2011 can be attributed to the number of distressed property sales rising to over 50% of all sales. Prior to 2009, “Distressed” sales accounted for less then 5% of all sales. As the “Distressed” sales become a significant part of the number of sales, they also hold the value of “Normal” sales back because they are used as comparable’s during negotiations and appraisals.

Here are some yearly sales figures (units) for the City of La Quinta from 2002:

Year

All

LQ Golf Course

2002

1,356

259

2003

1,572

640

2004

1,938

785

2005

1,563

638

2006

1,118

483

2007

  942

444

2008

1,076

405

2009

1,202

409

2010

1,360

518

2011

1,446

510

2012

1,532

587

2013 YTD

239

98

* Remember that the sales numbers represent “Closed” escrows. Since the average escrow is between 45 and 60 days, the decision to purchase the homes that closed in June was probably made in March to early April.

Source: DesertAreaMLS

Sales Analysis through December 2012

Here are the latest sales numbers for all homes sold within the City of La Quinta as well as all Golf Course homes in La Quinta from January, 2008 through December, 2012.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
The blue lines represent 2008 data, the orange lines represent 2009 data magenta lines represent 2010, green lines represent 2011 data and the purple lines represent 2012 data.

Looking at the numbers, 2012 was a good year for real estate in La Quinta. With sales of 1,530 units, 2012 was the second strongest year for unit sales since 2005 (1,563 units sold). 2004 was the best year ever for unit sales in the City of La Quinta at 1,938 units sold.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Golf Course home sales in La Quinta.

Like the sales numbers for the entire city, the sales-volume numbers (587) in the higher-end market (which contains many of the golf properties in the chart above) were also the best since 2004 (785).

The number of “distressed” (bank owned and “Short Sale”) properties has decreased from 46.0% of total sales in 2011 to 31.9% in 2012. This is especially impressive when the total number of sales in 2012 increased by 5.8% over total sales in 2011. Here are the sales figures from 2006 through 2012 showing what an important factor distressed property sales played in overall La Quinta sales picture:

Year:

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Total Sales

1,118

942

1,076

1,202

1,360

1,446

1,530

Distressed Sales

5

40

366

605

623

665

488

Distressed/Total

0.45%

4.25%

34.01%

50.33%

45.81%

45.99%

31.90%

From 0.45% of sales in 2006 to 50.33% in 2009, you can easily see why “distressed” sales have played such a big part of home sales pricing. Recently, the Desert Sun newspaper had a headline stating that the median home price had risen 31%. This is not hard to accept when you replace a significant number of lower priced distressed sales with higher priced regular sales. Lessening the impact of the distressed sales is good for everyone.

Here is a chart of the number of home sales in the City of La Quinta since 2000.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
We are gradually coming back from the low in 2007 on a steady upward trend. The outlook seems to be improving as we are seeing the return of developers and a significant increase in new construction.

The famous bubble.

A lot of our current economic troubles have been blamed on the “Real Estate Bubble” which “popped” in 2006.
In 2005, an article published by the National Association of Realtors spoke about the “bubble” and how it represented a lack of value in the inflated home prices of the time and that people would soon realize that the inflated home prices did not represent the actual value of the home and the bubble would implode. The article went on the say that for as long as the NAR had been recording it, Real Estate appreciation had risen at an annual rate of 4.5% and that when the bubble broke, prices would come back down to meet that normal appreciation line.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Price per square foot of home sold from 2000 to 2012 in the City of La Quinta.

This chart shows the “Bubble” as sale prices departed from the normal line in 2002 and returned to it in 2009 as predicted by the NAR. What the NAR had not predicted was the number of distressed properties that would come into the market place and the significant affect they would have on the sale price of regular sales. If the number of distressed properties continues to shrink, we should see the actual price line come up to the “normal” appreciation line in the next year or two or maybe we need to establish a new “normal” line.

Overall, we continue to see more positive signs in the market place and the media continues to be encouraging. We are anticipating a good year in 2013. The mortgage industry is the best it’s been for conventional loans and even the “jumbo” loans, are becoming easier to get..

Here are some yearly sales figures (units) for the City of La Quinta from 2002:

Year All LQ Golf Course
2002 1,356 259
2003 1,572 640
2004 1,938 785
2005 1,563 638
2006 1,118 483
2007   942 444
2008 1,076 405
2009 1,202 409
2010 1,360 518
2011 1,446 510
2012 1,530 587

* Remember that the sales numbers represent “Closed” escrows. Since the average escrow is between 45 and 60 days, the decision to purchase the homes that closed in June was probably made in March to early April.

Source: DesertAreaMLS

 

September, 2012 Real Estate Sales Analysis

Here are the latest sales numbers for all homes sold within the City of La Quinta as well as all Golf Course homes in La Quinta through September, 2012.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The blue lines represent 2008 data, the orange lines represent 2009 data magenta lines represent 2010, green lines represent 2011 data and the purple lines represent 2012 data.

Open escrows in La Quinta on September 30th decreased over June by 14.8%. The decrease in escrows is due to the traditional heat of the summer months. As you can see from the graph, this is a normal trend. The Coachella Valley Inventory has increased by 17.8% over June after both July and August showing decreases. The number of active listings at the end of September rose from 3,095 units at the end of August to 3,996 active listings at the end of September. We feel that this uncharacteristic jump is due to the low number of listings in both July and August. The “Active” inventory of resale homes in the Citrus community, for instance, is up to 3.3% from 2.4% in June where 10% is considered normal for a gated community. The Citrus has always had around 5 -6% of its homes for sale as it is a very desirable community to live in. The number of escrows at the end of June for the more expensive golf course properties decreased by 38.0% over June. The valley’s inventory continues to remain low despite the September increase which results in an increase in demand. The increased demand helps stabilize the market pricing over the lower priced short sales and bank owned properties. The unsold inventory continues to remain low, prices in some areas, like the La Quinta Cove, continue to increase slowly. As we get past the uncertainty of the election and into our “season”, we expect to see prices over the valley start to rise slowly.

The number of monthly unit sales within the city decreased in September by 41.6% over June which may be attributed to declining inventory, the summer season and the heat but we expect that sales will continue to be near or higher than past summers as sales are continuing to pick up in the bigger metro markets allowing people to sell their current homes and purchase a retirement property here in the desert. The number of “short sales” and “bank owned” properties being offered at reduced prices continue to be tapering off. There were only 9 Bank owned homes sold in La Quinta in June. Most lenders seem to be dealing more efficiently with the inventory of distressed properties although short sales and/or foreclosures can still be a challenge and they are still affecting the prices in the entire market as they are included as comparable homes by the buyers.

 

 

 

 

 
Golf Course home sales in La Quinta.

Like the sales trend for the entire city, the sales-volume numbers in the higher-end market (which contains many of the golf properties in the chart above) decreased 50.0% in September over June.

Overall, we continue to see more positive signs in the market place and the media continues to be encouraging. We are anticipating a good finish for the rest of 2012. The mortgage industry is the best it’s been for conventional loans and even the “jumbo” loans, are becoming easier to get..

Coachella Valley Inventory:
On September, 30, there were 3,996 active listings (up 17.7% from June), 2,692 units were in escrow (up 4.5% from June) totaling 6,688 units (Up 12.6% from June) available for sale which makes 40.25% of the total inventory in escrow (down 6.7% from June). If buying property is something on your list (especially golf property), why not take advantage of the incredible prices and seller incentives now, when sellers will work with you, instead of in the future, when the demand starts to catch up with the supply? Especially if you’re buying and planning to hold for 5+ years.

Here are some yearly sales figures (units) for the City of La Quinta from 2002:

Year All LQ Golf Course
2002 1,354 259
2003 1,565 652
2004 1,931 813
2005 1,553 657
2006 1,098 491
2007   935 447
2008 1,063 416
2009 1,155 418
2010 1,355 530
2011 1,446 520
2012 YTD 1,163 470

* Remember that the sales numbers represent “Closed” escrows. Since the average escrow is between 45 and 60 days, the decision to purchase the homes that closed in June was probably made in March to early April.

Source: DesertAreaMLS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

June, 2012 Real Estate Sales Analysis

Here are the latest sales numbers for all homes sold within the City of La Quinta as well as all Golf Course homes in La Quinta through June, 2012.

 

 

 

 

The blue lines represent 2008 data, the orange lines represent 2009 data magenta lines
represent 2010, green lines represent 2011 data and the purple lines represent 2012 data.

Open escrows in La Quinta on June 30th decreased over May by 15.9%. The decrease in escrows is due to the onslought of heat as we move into the summer months. As you can see from the graph, this is a normal trend. The Coachella Valley Inventory has decreased by 7.0% over the past month which is a great sign for our economy. The number of “Active Listings” on the Coachella Valley MLS has dropped 42.4% from January 2011 and 55.9% from January, 2010. The “Active” inventory of resale homes in the Citrus community, for instance, is down to 2.4% where 10% is considered normal for a gated community. The number of escrows at the end of June for the more expensive Golf Properties decreased by 24.6% over May. The valley’s inventory continues to shrink increasing the demand. The increased demand helps stablize the market pricing over the lower priced short sales and bank owned properties. The unsold inventory continues to decline, prices in some areas, like the La Quinta Cove, continue to increase slowly.

The number of unit sales within the city decreased in June by 7.5% over May which may be attributed to declining inventory but we expect that sales will continue to be near or higher than past summers as sales are continuing to pick up in the bigger metro markets allowing people to sell there current homes and purchase a retirement property here in the desert.

The number of “short sales” and “bank owned” properties being offered at reduced prices continue to be tapering off. There were only 22 Bank owned homes sold in La Quinta in June. Most lenders seem to be dealing more efficiently with the inventory of distressed properties although short sales and/or foreclosures can still be a challenge and they are still affecting the prices in the entire market as they are included as comparable homes by the buyers.

 

 

 

 

 

Golf Course home sales in La Quinta.

Like the total sales number for the City, the sales-volume numbers in the higher-end market (which contains many of the golf properties in the chart above) decreased 12.3% in June over May.

Overall, we continue to see more positive signs in the market place and the media continues to be encouraging. We are anticipating a good finish for the rest of 2012. The mortgage industry is the best it’s been for conventional loans and even the “jumbo” loans, are becoming easier to get.. Coachella Valley Inventory: On June, 30, there were 3,393 active listings (down 10.1% from May), 2,575 units were in escrow (down 13.2% from May) totaling 5,968 units (Down 11.5% from May) available for sale which makes 43.15% of the total inventory in escrow (down 2.0% from May). If buying property is something on your list (especially golf property), why not take advantage of the incredible prices and seller incentives now, when sellers will work with you, instead of in the future, when the demand starts to catch up with the supply? Especially if you’re buying and planning to hold for 5+ years.

Here are some yearly sales figures (units) for the City of La Quinta from 2002:

Year All LQ Golf Course
2002 1,354 259
2003 1,565 652
2004 1,931 813
2005 1,553 657
2006 1,098 491
2007   935 447
2008 1,063 416
2009 1,155 418
2010 1,355 530
2011 1,446 520
2012 YTD   849 365

* Remember that the sales numbers represent “Closed” escrows. Since the average escrow is between 45 and 60 days, the decision to purchase the homes that closed in June was probably made in March to early April.

Source: DesertAreaMLS

 

 

 

“A few houses selling like hotcakes”

This was the title on the lead story in the Desert Sun Monday, June 18, 2012.  The article went on to say that if the home is priced right, in many developements we are now seeing multiple offers and bidding wars.  The buyers are realizing that the inventory is way down (almost 2000 less homes on the market in our Valley than this time last year), the interest rates are unbelievable, and if they see a home that they like they need to act quickly.  These bidding wars are happening in the homes that are priced under $500,000.  In any real estate recovery, the rebound usually begins with the moderately priced homes, so this news is extremely encouraging.  In La Quinta we have noticed that the homes in the Cove are selling rapidly and many have had multiple offers resulting in bidding wars.  We are even beginning to notice that in the price range of up to $700,000–but only if the home is priced at what is perceived as an unbelievable value.

Please click on this link for the entire story: http://www.mydesert.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2012206180302

 

 

April and May 2012 Real Estate Sales Analysis

Here are the latest sales numbers for all homes sold within the City of La Quinta as well as all Golf Course homes in La Quinta through May, 2012.

City of La Quinta home sales by month since January, 2008*

The blue lines represent 2008 data, the orange lines represent 2009 data magenta lines represent 2010, green lines represent 2011 data and the purple lines represent 2012 data.

By the time we got around to writing up the April Sales Analysis, the May numbers were available so this time we will combine the good news from both months.

Open escrows in La Quinta on April 31st increased over March by 1.4% but then decreased by 2.5% in May. The decresae in escrows is due to the season winding down as we move into the summer months. The Coachella Valley Inventory has decreased by 11.5% over the past two months which is a great sign for our economy.  The number of escrows at the end of April for the more expensive Golf Properties increased by 0.8% over March but decreased by 6.2% in May.  The valley’s inventory continues to shrink increasing the demand. The increased demand helps stablize the market pricing over the lower priced short sales and bank owned properties. The unsold inventory has declined 47.2% over the high in January, 2011. Prices in some areas, like the La Quinta Cove, are acutally increasing slowly.

The number of unit sales within the City decreased in April slightly and bounced back in May within 5 units from the record month of February. We expect that sales will continue to outpace past summers as sales are picking up in the bigger metro markets allowing people to sell there current homes and purchase a retirement property here in paradise.

The number of “short sales” and “bank owned” properties being offered at reduced prices seem to be tapering off. There were only 28 Bank owned homes sold in La Quinta in May and the current Inventory according to the MLS is only 9 but that changes almost daily.  Most lenders seem to be dealing more efficiently with the inventory of distressed properties although short sales and/or foreclosures can still be a challenge and they are still affecting the prices in the entire market as they are included as Comparable homes by the buyers.

Closed home sales in La Quinta in May was the second strongest month after March since we started tracking this number in 2008.

 

 

 

 

 

 
Golf Course home sales in La Quinta.

Like the total sales number for the City, the sales-volume numbers in the higher-end market (which contains many of the golf properties in the chart above) decreased in April slightly but bounced back to near record levels in May.

Overall, we are seeing more positive signs in the market place and the media continues to be encouraging. We are anticipating a good finish for the rest of 2012. The mortgage industry is the best it’s been for conventional loans and even the “jumbo” loans, are becoming easier to get..

Coachella Valley Inventory:
On May, 31, there were 3,774 active listings (down 18.8% from March), 2,968 units were in escrow (down 0.2% from March) totaling 6,742 units (Down 11.5% from March) available for sale which makes 44.02% of the total inventory in escrow (up 12.8% from March) –This trend is an indicator of increasing home sales for the months of April and May.

If buying property is something on your list (especially golf property), why not take advantage of the incredible prices and seller incentives now, when sellers will work with you, instead of in the future, when the demand starts to catch up with the supply? Especially if you’re buying and planning to hold for 5+ years.

Here are some yearly sales figures (units) for the City of La Quinta from 2002:

Year All LQ Golf Course
2002 1,354 259
2003 1,565 652
2004 1,931 813
2005 1,553 657
2006 1,098 491
2007   935 447
2008 1,063 416
2009 1,155 418
2010 1,355 530
2011 1,446 520
2012 YTD   699 300

* Remember that the sales numbers represent “Closed” escrows. Since the average escrow is between 45 and 60 days, the decision to purchase the homes that closed in June was probably made in March to early April.

Source: DesertAreaMLS